The 133rd Preakness Stakes

Curlin wins the 2007 Preakness 

Curlin surges past Street Sense at the wire to take the 2007 Preakness

 

 

Folks:

 

I’m still shellshocked over the outcome in the Derby, and I’ve decided against a full analysis of the Preakness.  My heart just isn’t in it. 

 

For those of you desperate for action and too lazy to read the sheets, here’s a quick rundown you can have a look at.

 

Here are the Past Performances for those of you willing to go the extra mile:

http://www.drf.com/tc/preakness/2008/pps/preakness08.pdf 

 

And here’s the field for the 133rd Preakness Stakes:

 

1

Macho Again

D. Stewart

J. Leparoux

20-1

2

Tres Borrachos

B. Greely

T. Baze

30-1

3

Icabad Crane

H. G. Motion

J. Rose

30-1

4

Yankee Bravo

P. Gallagher

A. Solis

15-1

5

Behindatthebar

T. Pletcher

D R Flores

10-1

6

Racecar Rhapsody

K. McPeek

R. Albarado

30-1

7

Big Brown

R. Dutrow Jr.

K. Desormeaux

1-2

8

Kentucky Bear

R. Bake

J. Theriot

15-1

9

Stevil

N. Zito

J. Velazquez

30-1

10

Riley Tucker

W. Mott

E. Prado

30-1

11

Giant Moon

R. Schosberg

J F Chavez

30-1

12

Gayego

P. Lobo

M. Smith

8-1

13

Hey Byrn

E. Plesa, Jr.

C. C. Lopez

20-1

 

Some quick analysis: 

  • Big Brown (7) does not look beatable, unless he gets a terrible trip or something bad happens to him, G-d forbid.  I intend to concede the win to him, and focus on who’s underneath on exactas, trifectas, and superfectas
  • For value, I like Kentucky Bear (8) to finish 2nd, assuming he ends up around his odds above (15 to 1).  Less than 10 to 1, I could reverse that decision.
  • It’s hard to leave out Gayego (12), who is the only horse on paper that looks like he has any shot to compete with Big Brown.  But he had an awful Derby and at 8 to 1 is probably not great value.  I’m still deliberating on where he goes on my tickets (2nd vs. 3rd vs. 4th)
  • If you’re betting trifectas and superfectas, the horses I’d consider including (other than Kentucky Bear and Gayego) would be….
  • Tres Borrachos (2), who will be a big price and will likely be on the lead without being pressed too hard… he could hold for 3rd or 4th
  • Icabad Crane (3) looks slow on paper but has a recent win at Pimlico and has a world-beater jockey up (Jeremy Rose, who rides locally and wins 35% of the time riding for Icabad’s trainer… you’ll get a BIG price for him)
  • Giant Moon (11) and Hey Byrn (13) are also worth a look, as they’ll be very long odds, and both are scrappers.  Hey Byrn has won at 1-3/16 miles and looked like a Derby horse off his first two starts this year
  • I was also looking a little at Yankee Bravo (4), but would only include him if his price came in much higher than the 15 to 1 above

 A potential $50 investment, pretty conservative vis-a-vis chasing longshots:

  • $15 exacta part wheel, 7 over 8,12 ($30)
  • $1 trifecta part wheel, 7 over 8,12 over 2,3,4,8,11,12,13 ($12)
  • $1 super part wheel, 7 over 8,12 over 3,8,12 over 3,8,12,13 ($8)

 Good luck!

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