….you may never again see something as improbable as this. (That was embarassing.)
To understand, from a handicapper’s perspective, how impossible this outcome is, you have to understand the numbers. Folks throw money at longshots at the Derby routinely, based on story, based on name, based on number, but handicappers know who has a shot and who doesn’t. This horse, my friends, had NO shot.
If you look at the Daily Racing Form Past Performance (the horse handicapping Bible), Mine That Bird had PP’s that didn’t qualify him to run in a Grade 3 stakes race for three-year-olds. His top “Beyer” was 81…. compared with 104 for Friesan Fire, 108 for Dunkirk, even 98 for Musket Man. He just didn’t rate.
This was the equine equivalent of the Boiling Springs High School football team knocking off USC for the national title. Never before has a horse so overmatched on paper delivered such a dominating performance. It wasn’t close. 6-3/4 lengths, broader than Barbaro or Smarty Jones by far. The Detroit Lions just won the Super Bowl by 4 touchdowns.
So what are the lessons here? Lesson #1: You want Calvin Borel at the Derby. The dude is 1st, 3rd, and 1st in three tries. He knows how to get a horse home against a big field at Churchill Downs. He goes up the rail, the shortest distance between two points.
Lesson #2: it’s gotten harder to read 3-year-olds. This probably has something to do with the mystery added by synthetic tracks, and something to do with the abbreviated records we now often see pre-Derby. We don’t know who is good on dirt, who is good on mud, who is good under duress. It should push us toward more longshots.
Lesson #3: Off tracks bring surprises. The mud at Churchill is sticky and slow. It ain’t like any other slop. Ask Larry Jones and Friesan Fire.
Here are the prices (nice superfecta if you had it):
Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1)
Next Post 7:28 Off: 6:28 | 1 1/4 Miles | 3 Year Olds | Stakes | Purse: $2,177,200
|8||Mine That Bird||Borel C H||126||103.20||54.00||25.80|
|16||Pioneerof the Nile||Gomez G K||126||8.40||6.40|
|2||Musket Man||Coa E M||126||12.00|
Times in 5ths: :224 :471 1:12 1:372 2:023
Times in 100ths: :22.98 :47.23 1:12.09 1:37.49 2:02.66
Scratched: I Want Revenge
Also ran: Papa Clem, Chocolate Candy, Summer Bird, Join in the Dance, Regal Ransom, West Side Bernie, General Quarters, Dunkirk, Hold Me Back, Advice, Desert Party, Mr. Hot Stuff, Atomic Rain, Nowhere to Hide, Friesan Fire and Flying Private
Winning Trainer: Woolley Bennie L Jr – Owner: Double Eagle Ranch and Bueno Suerte Equine
$2 Pick 3 (3-6-8) 3 Correct Paid $2,905.00 Pick 3 Pool $1,171,623
$2 Pick 3 (OAKS/WOOD/DERBY 6-6-8) 3 Correct Paid $831.60 Pick 3 Pool $525,734
50 CENT Pick 4 (3-3-1/6-8) 4 Correct Paid $10,221.15 Pick 4 Pool $1,846,112
$2 Pick 6 (6-4-3-3-1/6-8) 5 Correct Paid $1,718.80 Pick 6 Pool $1,058,849 Carryover Pool $781,146
$2 Daily Double (6-8) Paid $632.40 Daily Double Pool $754,376
$2 Daily Double (OAKS/DERBY 6-8) Paid $248.40 Daily Double Pool $1,514,974
$2 Exacta (8-16) Paid $2,074.80
$2 Consolation Pick 3 (OAKS/WOOD/DERBY 6-1-13) Paid $2.10
$2 Consolation Pick 3 (OAKS/WOOD/DERBY 6-1-8) Paid $332.20
$2 Consolation Pick 3 (OAKS/WOOD/DERBY 6-6-13) Paid $6.00
$2 Future Wager (EXACTA POOL 2 24-17) Paid $256.80
$2 Future Wager (EXACTA POOL 3 24-16) Paid $554.60
$2 Future Wager (POOL 1 – 24) Paid $5.80
$2 Future Wager (POOL 2 – 24) Paid $11.80
$2 Future Wager (POOL 3 – 24) Paid $36.80
$2 Superfecta (8-16-2-7) Paid $557,006.40
$2 Trifecta (8-16-2) Paid $41,500.60
$2 Consolation Double (OAKS/DERBY 6-13) Paid $2.40
We’ll see you at the Preakness. It’ll be wide open. All I can say is this: you just had your last chance to bet Mine That Bird at 50 to 1. The tougher question is — what should his odds be now?
Regards, Peach, Handicapper Aghast