UPDATE: Brevity is apparently not the soul of wit
|$2.00 Exacta (7-5)||$144.50|
|$2.00 Trifecta (7-5-11)||$766.00|
|$2.00 Superfecta (7-5-11-8)||$10,658.00|
Summer Bird surges by the dueling Dunkirk and Mine That Bird to upset the 2009 Belmont Stakes (which I predicted, of course)
Apologies to all in advance for the following brief analysis of this year’s race. I have actually been pathetically busy on many fronts, somehow, and have not been able to devote the kind of quality time this thing deserves.
But let’s get to it. The best horse in the race by 10 lengths is Ice Box (6), who is 3-1 on the morning line. If it holds up, it’s a great price. This horse would have won the Kentucky Derby by 5 lengths with any kind of reasonable trip — he was flying at the wire and would have caught Super Saver in another 50 yards.
Luckily, the Preakness runner-up First Dude (11) looks on paper to be set up for an easy lead, and is a threat to wire the field — he’ll take plenty of money, and could even be bet down below his 7-2 morning line level. I’m betting someone — perhaps Interactif (12) — will press the pace, and ruin the easy lead, frying the two up in the process.
Underneath Ice Box I’d look at Make Music for Me (4) who was 4th in the Derby and looks like the “go long” type, Fly Down (5), who won the 1-1/8th mile Dwyer at Belmont recently with ease, and Dave in Dixie (1), who’ll be ridden by none other than Calvin Borel. Although proven mortal in Baltimore three weeks ago, he still has a well-documented track record of getting mediocre horses to hit the board.
Go to the Daily Racing Form website for the usual info (drf.com). Here’s the field:
$50 of joy can be obtained by making the following wagers:
$25 to win on the 6 ($25)
$3 exacta part wheel, 6 with 1 4 5 ($9)
$1 trifecta part wheel 6 with 1 4 5 11 with 1 4 5 11 12 ($16)
I have not lost my sense of humor, I swear. I’ve just lost the will to live. When I finally get planted, I promise I’ll be as jolly as a Libertarian.
All the best to you warriors of the unwashed window!
Your fey friend of the final furlong,